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Shale Oil Will Boost U.S. Production, But It Won’t Bring Energy Independence

MIT Press - technology review -- The United States could see a surge in oil production that could make it the world’s leading oil producer within a decade, according to a new report from the International Energy Agency. But that lead will likely be temporary, and it still won’t allow the United States to stop importing oil. Barring technological breakthroughs in oil production and major reductions in consumption, the United States will need to rely on oil from outside its borders for the foreseeable future.

This week’s IEA report predicts that a relatively new technology for extracting oil from shale rock could make the United States the world’s leading oil producer within a decade, beating the current leader, Saudi Arabia.

The idea that the U.S. could overtake Saudi Arabia, even temporarily, is a stunning develop

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Submitted Nov 16, 2012 By: NHLiveFree

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tomok Champion Author Portland Posts:33,600 Points:2,373,210 Joined:Aug 2006	Message Posted: Nov 17, 2012 4:44:14 AM Ignore tomok Report Abuse Shale Oil Will Boost U.S. Production, But It Won’t Bring Energy Independence and a very large part of the fuel and natural gas will be exported to other countries that will pay more for it. Building more refineries is Not the answer, keep the fuel and natural gas 'here' is The answer! Big Oil and Big Gas continues to sell fuel and natural gas on the world market for higher prices, there will be NO price reduction for the cost of fuel or natural gas IN the US. 'Coming out of the closet' Sneeky's lousy, smoke and mirrors, lack of jobs, dog and pony show and in the crapper economy, the jobs are Not here. Sneeky's economy is not improving but continues to hurt the population and the job numbers continue to be down! People will still drive and buy fuel no matter what but it sure helps to have a job too! The US ‘oil and natural gas resources’ belong to the citizens of this country and are to be used by those same citizens! Speculators, manipulators and the banks continue to unfairly and unjustly make the driving public pay higher prices at the pump for their personal greedy benefit. The price at the pump needs to go down to $2/gallon, $3, $3.50/gallon or *$4.00 is Not the new low! Whatever the size or shape of the vehicle, vehicle manufactures Produce and the population ‘Drives’ vehicles with high MPG, are very safe, reliable, have a ‘reasonable’ cost and a good ‘value’ for the money. The price of fuel at the pump is too high! XII/XXII/MMXII!
DrCashFlow Champion Author Massachusetts Posts:7,204 Points:1,654,785 Joined:Jun 2008	Message Posted: Nov 17, 2012 3:07:58 AM Ignore DrCashFlow Report Abuse first the yaysayers, now the naysayers chime in on the notion of energy independence. whom to believe... time will tell.
NHLiveFree Champion Author New Hampshire Posts:11,294 Points:1,649,905 Joined:Jun 2008	Message Posted: Nov 17, 2012 12:00:24 AM Ignore NHLiveFree Report Abuse Great comments. Perhaps the first step is to keep all our natural resources in the USA since we remain the largest consumers of energy in the world. It would be extremely short-sighted to allow it to be piddled away around the world to the highest bidder in the name of 'free trade' or corporate freedom to constantly 'take'.
MAC48 Champion Author Dallas Posts:1,580 Points:789,275 Joined:Dec 2006	Message Posted: Nov 16, 2012 8:36:21 PM Ignore MAC48 Report Abuse When one thinks of US energy independence, i.e. produces more than it consumes, as a standalone entity, one needs to realize that this will probably never happen. When one thinks of US energy independence as an entity within the three country North America group, then one needs to realize that this could very well happen. Even if the three country group comprising North America achieves energy independence, it will not mean $1, $2, $3, $4 or $5 per gallon gasoline. The price here in North America has to be great enough that the owners of North American produced crude oil and the refined products it represents want to sell their production here in North America as opposed to incurring the cost to use oil or refined oil products transportation facilities, such as pipelines, trains, oil tankers, etcetera to ship their product to foreign markets. For example, if Asian markets are willing to pay $100 per barrel for North American produced crude oil but it cost $20 dollars per barrel to get that crude oil to these Asian markets, then the North American market had better be willing to pay $75 to $85 to keep that crude oil here in North America to provide for North American needs. This is how the global energy market works for all types of energy except electricity.
too_darned_high Sophomore Author Indianapolis Posts:213 Points:360,900 Joined:Apr 2012	Message Posted: Nov 16, 2012 8:29:56 PM Ignore too_darned_high Report Abuse This country has so much reserve oil, coal, and natural gas that we could be using while also working to make wind and solar much more cost-effective. Energy independence is NOT far-fetched at all...we just need the right people working to make that happen.
knot2swift Champion Author Calgary Posts:4,511 Points:718,710 Joined:Nov 2009	Message Posted: Nov 16, 2012 8:16:12 PM Ignore knot2swift Report Abuse When the price of oil hits $150 and is sustained. When better "Fracking" technology is made.....Then the oil in the mid west will be one of the big plays in the world. Meanwhile...We got lots of dead organic life giving off lots of Natural Gas while decomposing. We got a couple of hundred years worth of Coal that can burn quite cleanly if we crush it into a gas. Besides that, wind and solar will come down in price to made both a viable alternative. So what's the problem besides narrow mindedness by the author of this article. Sometimes problems are solved by combining many options. That's the best application of the idiot buzz words "Multi Tasking". "Instead of doing many things at once, why not attack a single problem from many differant angles" Has any "Rocket Scientist" figured that one out? I do it all the time at work with my own silly ass problems.
5Golfer8 Champion Author Tucson Posts:2,263 Points:326,925 Joined:Jun 2011	Message Posted: Nov 16, 2012 8:11:35 PM Ignore 5Golfer8 Report Abuse Of course the con artist would say that. [Edited by: 5Golfer8 at 11/16/2012 8:12:38 PM EST]
bababooey2 Champion Author Hartford Posts:6,492 Points:1,330,540 Joined:Sep 2009	Message Posted: Nov 16, 2012 8:06:08 PM Ignore bababooey2 Report Abuse We will always be buying oil overseas.
g747 Champion Author Mobile Posts:4,682 Points:961,370 Joined:Jul 2009	Message Posted: Nov 16, 2012 8:00:29 PM Ignore g747 Report Abuse That's what we need as a country to excell in commodities,to circumvent ourselves to that crucial point of interest.
mabrams184 Champion Author Lexington Posts:2,176 Points:557,955 Joined:Aug 2011	Message Posted: Nov 16, 2012 7:53:18 PM Ignore mabrams184 Report Abuse But will prices drop back down below $3 per gallon?
alkarn Champion Author Riverside Posts:1,275 Points:273,800 Joined:Jul 2012	Message Posted: Nov 16, 2012 7:50:58 PM Ignore alkarn Report Abuse Status quo.
marinedad1949 Champion Author Lancaster Posts:2,632 Points:531,145 Joined:Nov 2011	Message Posted: Nov 16, 2012 7:48:16 PM Ignore marinedad1949 Report Abuse We need energy independence right now due to the volatility of the Mid East and what is about ready to break out there.
skb69sa Champion Author San Antonio Posts:3,628 Points:739,075 Joined:Mar 2011	Message Posted: Nov 16, 2012 7:48:09 PM Ignore skb69sa Report Abuse Information's are highly conflicting.
PTBpricer Champion Author Virginia Posts:1,885 Points:228,170 Joined:Jun 2012	Message Posted: Nov 16, 2012 7:47:45 PM Ignore PTBpricer Report Abuse Hasn't this been in three other articles in the last few weeks.
skysteve1 Champion Author Victoria Posts:1,290 Points:403,935 Joined:Jul 2011	Message Posted: Nov 16, 2012 7:41:15 PM Ignore skysteve1 Report Abuse especially if its alternative fuel
Bonito Champion Author Dayton Posts:15,916 Points:3,035,595 Joined:Jun 2004	Message Posted: Nov 16, 2012 7:35:00 PM Ignore Bonito Report Abuse We make enough Oil and gasoline to take care of the needs of the USA! Moving to be the number 1 oil producer in the WORLD! In 10 years we will no longer need oil or gasoline because we will have other engine plants that don't need refilling!
swrestler Champion Author Grand Rapids Posts:6,279 Points:1,599,730 Joined:Oct 2008	Message Posted: Nov 16, 2012 7:32:35 PM Ignore swrestler Report Abuse We Need Our Oil Independence Now.....
milespergallon Champion Author Illinois Posts:9,888 Points:1,936,995 Joined:Feb 2007	Message Posted: Nov 16, 2012 7:31:12 PM Ignore milespergallon Report Abuse Excuse me!!!!!!!!!!!!!! We already ARE at independence! We are now exporting more than we import! That makes use CAPABLE of independence!
carinthuist Champion Author San Francisco Posts:2,373 Points:355,165 Joined:Mar 2012	Message Posted: Nov 16, 2012 7:31:03 PM Ignore carinthuist Report Abuse ok but we need oil indepence in the future
rampower80 Champion Author Kentucky Posts:2,174 Points:489,165 Joined:Jan 2012	Message Posted: Nov 16, 2012 7:26:24 PM Ignore rampower80 Report Abuse If we can produce 80% of our oil, it is much better than where we were.
tnfran Champion Author Arizona Posts:4,518 Points:869,140 Joined:Dec 2010	Message Posted: Nov 16, 2012 7:24:46 PM Ignore tnfran Report Abuse Drill here, keep it here . And then yes then it would help US have energy independence. Gotta have a "Leader though" which we don't .
DEG Champion Author Las Vegas Posts:17,745 Points:3,519,480 Joined:Jul 2003	Message Posted: Nov 16, 2012 7:21:23 PM Ignore DEG Report Abuse Back in the 1970s we were told that the world would be out of oil by now. The same tree-huggers are still crying wolf and running around like chicken little claiming that people are the cause of global warming. The US could indeed become energy efficient (especially if we limited the export of refined crude products).
Romey08 Champion Author Virginia Posts:6,422 Points:1,458,380 Joined:Apr 2008	Message Posted: Nov 16, 2012 7:14:13 PM Ignore Romey08 Report Abuse If we stop export our oil, we can probably be self-reliant and independent.
2granny Champion Author Michigan Posts:9,715 Points:1,493,955 Joined:Apr 2009	Message Posted: Nov 16, 2012 7:11:56 PM Ignore 2granny Report Abuse Sounds good, but we will see.
gass12 Champion Author Omaha Posts:8,533 Points:2,332,370 Joined:Oct 2005	Message Posted: Nov 16, 2012 7:06:38 PM Ignore gass12 Report Abuse Shoud help out.
Rt118E Champion Author Pennsylvania Posts:9,636 Points:1,396,945 Joined:Jun 2009	Message Posted: Nov 16, 2012 7:05:05 PM Ignore Rt118E Report Abuse We need to get away from Araba Oil
brbts Champion Author Charlotte Posts:3,752 Points:797,240 Joined:Feb 2011	Message Posted: Nov 16, 2012 7:04:53 PM Ignore brbts Report Abuse Not if we keep EXPORTING IT! Get it here and KEEP IT HERE for US!
wildddkattt80 Champion Author Phoenix Posts:2,143 Points:432,145 Joined:Jun 2011	Message Posted: Nov 16, 2012 7:04:42 PM Ignore wildddkattt80 Report Abuse Ok
Ken2OD Champion Author Grand Rapids Posts:9,213 Points:1,999,640 Joined:Dec 2005	Message Posted: Nov 16, 2012 7:04:27 PM Ignore Ken2OD Report Abuse Every little bit helps us to shed ourselves from OPEC!
ber5 All-Star Author Chicago Posts:664 Points:132,445 Joined:Sep 2012	Message Posted: Nov 16, 2012 7:04:17 PM Ignore ber5 Report Abuse THIS is a good thing...
bevmill Champion Author Georgia Posts:2,718 Points:628,165 Joined:Apr 2006	Message Posted: Nov 16, 2012 7:04:05 PM Ignore bevmill Report Abuse Well ok I guess.
mplato Champion Author Columbia Posts:8,394 Points:1,843,945 Joined:Jun 2004	Message Posted: Nov 16, 2012 7:00:26 PM Ignore mplato Report Abuse of course if we dont drill in areas that have know resourses...we never will
balljars Champion Author Michigan Posts:8,113 Points:1,610,595 Joined:Aug 2008	Message Posted: Nov 16, 2012 7:00:02 PM Ignore balljars Report Abuse Could we really overtake Saudi Arabia? I guess time will tell.
nauzad Champion Author Las Vegas Posts:1,114 Points:302,180 Joined:Mar 2010	Message Posted: Nov 16, 2012 6:59:32 PM Ignore nauzad Report Abuse hmm...
fieldt Champion Author Lansing Posts:4,055 Points:755,800 Joined:Mar 2011	Message Posted: Nov 16, 2012 6:58:35 PM Ignore fieldt Report Abuse The sooner we get started the sooner we can use it.
nztyraider Champion Author Nevada Posts:2,322 Points:716,955 Joined:Apr 2009	Message Posted: Nov 16, 2012 6:58:18 PM Ignore nztyraider Report Abuse If you say so.
Bonanza Champion Author Boston Posts:12,254 Points:2,578,705 Joined:Jun 2004	Message Posted: Nov 16, 2012 6:57:24 PM Ignore Bonanza Report Abuse Just get the gasoline price down
camaro_man Champion Author Kitchener-Waterloo Posts:2,372 Points:638,745 Joined:Jun 2010	Message Posted: Nov 16, 2012 6:57:07 PM Ignore camaro_man Report Abuse wow really??
captngasTN Champion Author Tennessee Posts:3,015 Points:1,350,975 Joined:Jun 2009	Message Posted: Nov 16, 2012 6:53:53 PM Ignore captngasTN Report Abuse neither will guvment funded EV, solar and wind projects with poor business models
rf6480 Champion Author Miami Posts:1,584 Points:570,605 Joined:Mar 2011	Message Posted: Nov 16, 2012 6:51:18 PM Ignore rf6480 Report Abuse If we produce so much why do we pay so much? Libya for example shared the wealth with all citizens, at least before we "liberated" them.
Gascapade Champion Author Fort Worth Posts:3,157 Points:502,635 Joined:Mar 2009	Message Posted: Nov 16, 2012 6:50:47 PM Ignore Gascapade Report Abuse We will be energy independent if ALL forms of energy are developed and utilized, not just the corrupt, colluded, rampantly speculated, and price manipulated crude oil market....
rx7racerca Champion Author Calgary Posts:4,320 Points:1,138,390 Joined:Sep 2008	Message Posted: Nov 16, 2012 6:49:34 PM Ignore rx7racerca Report Abuse 99church - the US imports almost 50% of its crude needs currently. It is not a crude exporter, and never will be, according to the article. Between increases in US production and decreases in comsumption, the US can hope to significantly reduce its need for imported crude.
wz Champion Author Twin Cities Posts:2,625 Points:1,304,935 Joined:Feb 2009	Message Posted: Nov 16, 2012 6:48:15 PM Ignore wz Report Abuse The initial goal is to become North American dependent (allowing for imports from Canada, but ending the imports from Arab states). That is an achievable target in the foreseeable future, unless the Obama administration gets in the way. We are only surpassing Saudi Arabia because they withhold production to keep global prices up. They could double their output, if they could sell it for $100/barrel.
fire@53 Champion Author Philadelphia Posts:11,968 Points:2,796,025 Joined:May 2003	Message Posted: Nov 16, 2012 6:47:48 PM Ignore fire@53 Report Abuse The current administration is in love with wind and solar. They will find a way to stop as much drilling as the can to push their agenda!
rjoeh Champion Author Michigan Posts:7,211 Points:2,497,520 Joined:Jun 2004	Message Posted: Nov 16, 2012 6:47:45 PM Ignore rjoeh Report Abuse Probably not... but it will go a long way for quite a few years in putting the US closer to that magic status.
merlinMalo Champion Author San Antonio Posts:1,332 Points:563,675 Joined:Jun 2011	Message Posted: Nov 16, 2012 6:47:04 PM Ignore merlinMalo Report Abuse OK
marsbars Champion Author Alaska Posts:2,675 Points:1,184,585 Joined:Sep 2006	Message Posted: Nov 16, 2012 6:45:07 PM Ignore marsbars Report Abuse Our gov't. won't let us be independent... too many greenies.
99church Champion Author Indiana Posts:1,962 Points:389,740 Joined:Oct 2011	Message Posted: Nov 16, 2012 6:43:28 PM Ignore 99church Report Abuse That's because we export a lot of the oil, sell it else where for a higher prices.
Dsin44 Champion Author Abbotsford Posts:1,275 Points:276,195 Joined:Apr 2011	Message Posted: Nov 16, 2012 6:40:29 PM Ignore Dsin44 Report Abuse next we will import drinking water
REKEY Champion Author South Carolina Posts:8,723 Points:1,727,095 Joined:May 2008	Message Posted: Nov 16, 2012 6:39:33 PM Ignore REKEY Report Abuse Cause we do not ever try to cut back!